Latel
y there is a loud chorus among pundits, proclaiming Afghanistan to be the new Viet Nam. Well, it’s not. While the conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan is certainly unique, it bears a great deal of resemblance to the former Yugoslavia. It is oh so easy to chant “Troops Out!” But the chanters have no clue the devastating consequences which would result if their wish were to become reality.
It is critical to understand the dynamics of this situation, because if U.S. and NATO military forces withdraw from Afghanistan before that country has had a real chance to recover from decades of war, hundred of thousands of Bosnians Afghan civilians will be killed.
The Durand Line
Understanding the Durand Line is fundamental to understanding the Af/Pak region. In 1893, Sir Mortimer Durand drew a line on a map which cut the nation of Afghanistan in half, along with cutting it off from its coast along the Arabian Sea. Prior to that time, Afghanistan actually extended east of the Indus River, which now runs down the center of Pakistan, a nation created in 1947. From the Afghan point of view, the Durand Line Treaty became null and void when the British left India. Great Britain saw things differently. Instead, Pakistan was established.
In a nutshell, Pakistan is the story, Afghanistan is the result.
Pakistan is the Unwilling Alliance of Four Ethnic Groups
Pakistan is primarily comprised of four ethnic regions: Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Pashtunistan (which is subdivided into the Northwest Frontier Province ["NWFP"] and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas ["FATA"] including North and South Waziristan. The largest ethnic groups are the Punjabis. Pakistan is basically an oligarchy ruled by 22 Punjabi families. The Punjabis also dominate the military of Pakistan, which is sometimes described as “an army with a country,” rather than the other way around, it is that pervasive in the daily lives of Pakistanis.
Ages before there was such a thing as the British Empire, Pashtun and Balochi tribesmen fought against Punjabi domination. Yet, Punjabi domination is exactly the legacy that the British left them in 1947.
The Durand Line (the 1,600 mile border between Afghanistan and Pakistan) divides both the Pashtun and Balochi ethnic regions. The people who live along the border don’t recognize it, partly because it was so arbitrarily drawn that it not only runs down the middle of towns, it cuts through the middle of properties. One old Afghan hand told me, “There are places along the border where you can eat lunch in Pakistan, and then go to the loo in Afghanistan.” Because of the Durand Line and their longstanding resistance to Punjabi domination, the Pashtun, Balochi and Sindhi peoples have been fighting separatist rebellions since Pakistan was created. This is the most significant fact which is not reported in the news. Understanding it helps to reveal the patterns in the chaos of the region.
The Taliban is a Pakistani Paramilitary Organization, NOT a Pashtun Movement
Because of these separatist rebellions, and the fact that two of these groups have brethren on the Afghan side of the border, with whom they long to unite, the Punjabi elite of Pakistan have for over three and a half decades acted on the belief that Afghanistan must be kept unstable and/or under their control. They began recruiting and training Islamic (and Maoist) rebels in 1972 and sending them in to terrorize and destabilize Afghanistan, in order to keep the Afghans too preoccupied to assert re-negotiation of the Durand Line. The mujahidin were part of this, and in 1994 Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (“ISI”) organized the Taliban for the same purpose. The Taliban are not a Pashtun movement. They are a Pakistani paramilitary group. They receive their training, funding, weapons and supplies from the government of Pakistan.
Additionally, Pakistan uses the Taliban to suppress the Pashtun and Balochi separatist movements. What you never hear on the news, but which I have learned by speaking with Pashtuns, is that the Pakistan Army is not fighting either the Taliban or Al Qaeda. Rather, the Army works with both the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and another group called Hezb-e-Islami Hekmatyar (“HIG”) to suppress the separatists. The Pakistan government is very careful to keep this information out of the news, because it would cause an international uproar and bring an end to the enormous financial and military assistance from the U.S. which it has long enjoyed. Next time you read a news story about conditions in Pakistan, check the source. It will invariably be a government official. But Pakistan also controls the news by simply murdering journalists who threaten to broadcast the truth. Daniel Pearl was kidnapped two days before he was to leave the country, and ISI has a particularly nasty habit of assassinating Afghan journalists.
Afghanistan = Bosnia Punjab = Serbia and the Bush Administration’s Bad Math
Because of this situation wherein one ethnic group controls the military and uses it to oppress the other ethnic groups of the region, Af/Pak bears great similarity to the former Yugoslavia, with Punjab standing in for Serbia, while the Pashtun and Balochi regions, along with most of Afghanistan, can be seen as stand ins for Bosnia and Kosovo. Afghanistan is nothing at all like Viet Nam. It is like Bosnia.
The comparison to Bosnia is particularly apt when evaluating the U.S./NATO military mission. Peace and security were successfully restored to Bosnia with a ratio of 1 soldier for every 50 civilians. Under the Bush Administration, every one American soldier in Afghanistan was responsible for about 400 civilians. 1/50 worked. 1/400 is obviously impossible, and was clearly a recipe for failure from the outset. The surge which President Obama just announced will bring the ratio down to 1/200. What is clear to the soldiers, but misunderstood by the “Troops Out!” camp, is that a large army is actually safer than a small one. Which sounds safer: walking into a biker bar alone, or walking into a biker bar with half a dozen friends? The same is true in a combat zone.
The Bush Administration Screwed Up Afghanistan on Purpose
Another recipe for failure in Afghanistan can be seen in the Bush Administration purposefully allowing the leadership of both Al Qaeda and the Taliban to be airlifted out of Kunduz and later to walk across the border into Pakistan from nearby Tora Bora. American Special Forces working with the Northern Alliance had succeeded in encircling the enemy in the town of Kunduz in northern Afghanistan in November of 2001. They were ordered to stand down while Pakistan was given permission to airlift out the enemy’s leaders. This event became known as the Evil Airlift. What was not widely reported was the fact that the Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership included many Pakistan Army officers.
As previously mentioned, from the point of view of Pakistan’s rulers, Afghanistan must be kept unstable in order to prevent Pakistan from falling apart. There are solutions. Afghanistan has expressed a willingness to accept the Durand Line as the border. However, that doesn’t settle the internal issues in Pakistan. The Punjabis have long been robbing the other provinces of their natural resources (primarily oil, gas and copper), without sharing an appropriate amount of the national treasure with those regions. The Pashtuns, Balochis and Sindhis might be less inclined to fight for their independence if they were allowed greater control over their natural resources, and greater autonomy.
The Soviet Union Was Lured into a Trap
Pakistan created the mujahidin to destabilize Afghanistan. This began during the 1970s. When Zbigniew Brzezinski was President Carter’s National Security Adviser, he suggested that, if the United States provided additional funds and weapons to Pakistan’s Islamic (and Maoist) pawns in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union would very likely intervene to quell the situation. Unfortunately for the Afghans, Brzezinski was right.
Pakistan insisted on controlling distribution of U.S. assistance to the Afghan mujahidin during the 1980s, and as a method of further ensuring instability in Afghanistan, never allowed the Afghan resistance to coalesce around a single organization. Rather, ISI organized the Afghans mujahidin into seven parties, all based in Pakistan, and ordered the commanders of its favorite party, HIG, to attack their Afghan allies whenever they encountered them inside Afghanistan. Thus the stage was set for these seven factions to compete for power in a brutal civil war as soon as the Soviets left Afghanistan. Divide and conquer.
The Consequences of Military Failure for the Afghan People
It is well known that over one million Afghans died during the 1980s war with the Soviet Union. What has not been reported is that, from the fall of the Afghan communist government in 1992 to the fall of the Taliban government in 2001, over 400,000 Afghan civilians were killed.
Circumstances are ripe for a repeat of the 1990s holocaust. American and NATO soldiers are standing between the civilians of Afghanistan and another slaughter. I speak regularly with Afghans all over the world, and they all believe that if the US/NATO withdraw militarily before Afghanistan has recovered enough to defend itself from Pakistan’s ongoing aggression, the civilian casualty rate will exceed 400,000.
The United States bears a great deal of responsibility for the destruction of Afghanistan during the 1980s and 1990s. We have a duty to help Afghans rebuild their country and to defend them against their enemy whom we have long enabled.
I will save the stories of how the CIA created Al Qaeda, ISI created the Taliban, Pakistan used its oil fields to influence American policymakers and the long, long list of reconstruction fake outs from the past eight years for another day. Suffice it to say; when President Obama says that this is not year eight of the Afghan war, but rather Year One, he is correct.
Melissa Roddy is the director of CONFLICT OF INTEREST, a documentary film focused on underlying and previously unreported issues regarding Afghanistan and Pakistan. Like several of the principals in the saga of that region, she is also a native Texan. In December of 2007 she achieved worldwide attention with the publication of a print article and documentary short exposing propagandistic misinformation in the movie “CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR.”
A truly well written post. It clearly expresses the conflict of interest Pakistan has w.r.t. Afghanistan.
There is also one other point that is omitted by people who get on the bandwagon of how ungovernable Afghanistan is. Afghanistan was a relatively peaceful country for the better part of 20th century from 1919 to 1973. People who are still alive today remember these good days. It is the intervention of cold-war rivalry since 1973 that has devastated the country.
After reading this article it seems that I feel that this writer has never visited these two countries and knows nothing about Pakistan or Afghanistan!! As I belong to the area Pakistan is years ahead of Afghanistan in all areas of development. I have lived in both NWFP and Afghanistan for years I know the cultures and quality of life of both countries: Pakistan and Afghanistan.
If she visits Pakistan her eyes will open to see how well developed cities exist in Pakistan as compared to Afghanistan. A person living in Pakistan would he ever like to become a citizen of Afghanistan as their as huge gap in quality of life between the two countries even though the interference of USA in this area has played havoc with Pakistani law and order situation and various terrorist activities.
She is talking about Punjabi domination while in actual practice this is just a poltical stunt that is not relevant as the Sindhi party Pakistan Peoples Party has been ruling Pakistan. While Musharraf who ruled the country for last 10 years was also from Urdu speaking family from Sindh.
Please visit these two countriesor do a better research before writing these theoretical articles as there is huge gap between the social standing of both countries how can you even imagine that any Pakistani would like to become a citizen of Afghanistan.
The President of Pakistan Zardari is of Baluchi origin. While 25% of Pakistani army is Pashtun. Benazir Bhutto was a Sindhi so why they should fight for Independence from Pakistan as they are literally ruling the country.
The Baluchi Independence movement was lead by Bughti who has been killed and its the most low intensity independent movement that has no force or backing by the ordinary people as it was led by the Tribal leader who was killed.
This article is one of the most ridiculous articles I have ever read and is totally far from the truth!!
Pakistan took up 3.5 million Afghan refugees and there is huge mountain of difference between the social standing between the people of two countries why would Pashtuns of Pakistan accept a country that lags far behind Pakistan in all aspects and they have a different identity from the Pashtuns of Afghanistan. Their dialect and their culture also differs from the Afghan Pashtuns.
Better study and analysis is required before jumping into such comparisons of countries of which you know so little!!!
Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Reddit by kitty_chumchum: i had a neighbor when i lived in raleigh that was a mong (they spell it hmong, though). it was pretty good neighbor, but pretty backward thinking when it came to women’s rights and also god damn if…
Yes imperialist created the Durand line. The imperialist also divided Kashmir based on their whims. Imperialist also created Israel that belonged to Palestinians. They also occupied lands of other rightful owners whom they wiped from this world.So should we not set all these wrongs right now and justify the injustices about the Durand line alone that the British had created out of their whims.
Many things they did wrong and also believe that they have never forgotten their defeats in the same areas that USA and Nato have dared to cross so if you want to teach the third world countries history read it first before occupying places where you should not have dared to enter!!
Someone said very well “truth is bitter” A true picture of the area. The whole story sorrounds pakistan, and as i believe on Almighty ALLAH as i believe on the fact the this country is the one and only problem. i.e pakistan. The writer has well presented the panjabi domenency in the country and as pashtun i believe the this coutry only belongs to panjabis. I simply ask how can someone says that pakistan is a nation.
@ratee: You have lived for years in both countries that is totally in doubt, becouse if you have spent time in pashtun areas then definitly you may have idea of pashtunwali to which we give more attention than religion. your idea that pakistani pashtuns are different from afghan pashtuns is totlay ridiculous. pashtun is only pashtun there is no classification as pakistani or afghani pashtun. how you can say that we are culturally different, 1st define culture and then compare us, the one in your mind i.e pakistani pashtun are confused made by a preplanned stretegy through so called PAKISTAN STUDY that put a ridiculous idea in minds of people. we have study this subject from the school level to university level and it puts an idea in the minds of the people that the world come into being in 14 augest 1947.
It must be cleared to all that every pashtun support afghanistan as its our only homeland. it should be cleared to all that why durand line was drawn and for whose favour it was lined and whatt is the status of this in our minds.
one cant hide the sun with a finger. Every one know what is pakistan so dont hide the facts for promotinting a panjabi propaganda…..
I am from Bosnia, and I have to tell you there is no peace or stability in Bosnia. Maybe you have heard about the Butmir proces. If US and Europe leave Bosnia. This state is not going to exist.
So you can install in Afghanistan an OHR for the next 50 years. And it will not work. But the analysis is good.
Hi Kate,
I would like to know more about Bosnia. Where are you located?
Best wishes,
Melissa Roddy
It is a well written article. You are right to say that Pakistan is a destabilizing factor in the area, especially for India and Afghanistan. If Pakistan is there as a Fascist Islamic Ideology, there will always be war, terror and interference into other countries. Pakistan has to adapt to evil, terror and suppressive factors in order to survive. Another thing that you mentioned is the Duran line which is very similar to the Berlin Wall. It is a split of one nation (Afghans) into two regions. The Duran Line created hatred, division among the same ethnic group (Pashtuns) and loopholes for terrorist to survive and a good opportunity for the Punjabis (Pakistanis) to manipulate and use against Afghanistan and India. The recent warnings or ultimatums to the Pakistani ISI and Army by USA seem that we are heading towards some kind of Balkanization of the area. I believe it is a good trend for the area. I believe that elimination of Duran Line brings peace, stability and prosperity to the area, and at the same time it limits the ability of terror producing country Pakistan. No one will cry for the Islamic Identity of Pakistan to Disappear. It does not exist anyway because the Punjabis are the dominating group, and a great threat to neighbouring countries and International Peace. Prior to emergence of Pakistan, peace, stability, harmony, sharing and prosperity were the primary values of the people in the area. After the creation of Pakistan, there is misery on the Iranian, Afghan, Indian and Pakistani sides of the border. It is because of this Fascist Pakistani Identity.
Melissa,
thanks again for shedding much needed light on this dark and confusing situation.
beautifully said waziland,
that is all true of what you have said about Pakistan and the Durand line. No one will ever cry for Pakistan and to my knowledge the Punjabi should go and create a independent khalistan with there Punjabi brothers in India. Pashtuns will never ever like or respect a damn Punjabi
Pakistan is not a nation. It is a religious association of four major ethnic groups while dominated by a single group Punjabis. This religious association is based on Fascist Islamic Ideals of Pakistan. The Fascist Pakistani Ideals of Islam has nothing to do with the ideals of Islam because Pakistan trains, supports, and exports terrorists around the world, and this action is contradictory to the peaceful coexistence of Islam with others. Pakistan uses suppressive, oppressive and fascist techniques in order to exist. I hope that there will be an end to the existence of last Fascist State Pakistan soon, so people of the area can live in harmony with each other one more time like the people of Germany, France and Poland and the rest of Europe. Let me correct one point here; the writer says that former Yugoslavia has a similar structure to Pakistan as a state. Yugoslavia had a majority of Slav Ethnic Groups, and their languages, culture and religious affiliation was of the same origin. It is true that Kosovo and Bosnia were religiously Muslim, but overall there were many similarities in terms of culture and language, and even socio-economic developments. In Pakistan, the ethnicity is white and black, oranges and apples, so they never mingle together besides the shared history with India. Pakistan is an alien to the area and as an alien it has to target everyone from the area in order to survive.
“It is oh so easy to chant “Troops Out!” But the chanters have no clue the devastating consequences which would result if their wish were to become reality.”
You are correct it does look like INDO CHINA pre 1956 how did that humanitarian mission work out? The United States butchered a million + displaced millions more in Iraq I guess I don’t understand the complexity of that either.
So please Melissa, I Jesse Hemingway bare not one god dam bit of responsibility for the corruption of the United States government and the criminal behavior under the disguise of our criminal two party political system. So Melissa Roddy you need to be exact on who has the blood on their hands for this criminal murder spree. Come on Melissa name some names like Bush family and the Clinton family let’s get real I am willing to bet that the two presidential libraries of George H. Bush and Bill Clinton received funds from the same sources as Al Qaeda. Then I probably don’t understand the complexity of that matter too.
Now you’re going to tell me H. Ross Perot was the crazy one.
Melissa Roddy here are two articles below that prove with out reasonable doubt that the total corruption of both political parties of the United States of America is the root cause of this colossal disaster. Unless you are a champion of the corrupt political system known as the United States government? Then the only rational choice is to leave Afghanistan and Iraq yesterday.
God forbid we have a real 9/11 investigation and slice open the pus oozing fraudulent two political party systems in the United States of America. Both the Democratic and Republican parties are both corporations first, their loyalty is to fascism.
1
An Open Letter to President Obama By William R. Polk
This article appeared in the October 19, 2009 edition of The Nation.
September 30, 2009
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20091019/polk
Dear Mr. President,
Although we were separated by more than a decade, we lived a few steps apart in Hyde Park and were both professors at the University of Chicago. There I established the Center for Middle Eastern Studies and was also president of the Adlai Stevenson Institute of International Affairs. Before going to Chicago, during the Kennedy administration I was the member of the Policy Planning Council responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia. A Democrat, I was an early supporter of yours. So I hope you will accept the following analysis and proposals as being from a friend as well as a person with considerable experience on Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In recent events I see an opportunity to accomplish American objectives while avoiding a course of action that could derail plans for your presidency, just as the Vietnam War ruined the presidency of Lyndon Johnson.
According to press accounts, you are being told that America can win the war against the Taliban by employing overwhelming military power. Just like President Johnson’s generals, yours keep asking for more troops. You are also being told that we can multiply our power with counterinsurgency tactics. Having made a detailed study (laid out in my book Violent Politics) of a dozen insurgencies, ranging from the American Revolution to Afghanistan, and fought by the British, French, Germans and Russians in America, Europe, Africa and Asia, I doubt that you are being well advised. When I was in government, we were told we could achieve victory in Vietnam by the same combination of force and counterinsurgency recommended by your advisers in Afghanistan. But as the editors of the Pentagon Papers concluded, the “attempt to translate the newly articulated theory of counter-insurgency into operational reality…. [through] a mixture of military, social, psychological, economic and political measures…. [were] marked by consistency in results as well as in techniques: all failed dismally.”
(link at the top)
2
Afghanistan Options
By Rob Grace Tuesday,
November 24 10:13 am EST
http://lawandsecurity.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/11/24/afghanistan-options/
Obama will announce his Afghanistan strategy next week. Reports indicate that troop levels will most likely be close to the 40,000 requested by General McChrystal. According to the New York Times, the three possibilities being seriously considered were:
1) Send 40,000 troops.
This plan involves sending about 10,000 troops to Kandahar (where now there are about 3,200 U.S. troops and 1,600 Canadian soldiers); 5,000 to Helmand (where now there are around 4,000 marines); 5,000 to P2K (the provinces of Paktika, Paktia and Khost in the east); and 10,000 trainers working with Afghan soldiers.
2) Send 20,000 to 35,000 troops.
Gates, Mullen, and Clinton support a plan in this area of troop levels, though they apparently clashed on how the troops should be used. This plan would involve 5,000 troops for training as opposed to 10,000. If the surge is more toward 20,000, not many troops, if any at all, would be sent to Helmand and P2K.
3) Send 10,000 to 15,000 troops.
This plan focuses on training Afghan troops and going after Al Qaeda in Pakistan via drone attacks.
William R. Polk, writing a guest editorial for Informed Comment, notes that none of these proposals meet the troop-population ratio recommended by the U.S. counterinsurgency field manual. With the Afghan population around 33 million, that would mean at least 660,000 troops.
(link at the top)
Drum roll please: What Victory Looks Like
Iraq holds oil auction, Shell wins giant field
On 5:21 am EST, Friday December 11, 2009
By Missy Ryan and Ahmed Rasheed
BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Royal Dutch Shell and Malaysia’s Petronas on Friday won the rights to develop one of the world’s largest remaining untapped oilfields as Iraq staged its second auction of oil contracts since the 2003 U.S. invasion.
The companies proposed a fee of just $1.39 per barrel and pledged to increase output from the supergiant Majnoon field to 1.8 million barrels per day, more than double what Iraq had expected. The fee was below what Iraq was willing to pay.
“We announce that the consortium of Shell and Petronas have won (the contract) to develop Majnoon, and the fee is less than the Oil Ministry specified,” Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said at the heavily-protected auction.
Is good idea to keep the Berlin Wall (Durand Line) between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and spend billions to protect it? All the money comes from our pocket. It is my suggestion that elimination of Durand Line will lead to saving money, lives, and birth of peace, prosperity, and better coexistence. It will unite a nation, and make it responsible to protect its borders!
Jesse,
I’m not sure how my article, or Polk’s Nation op-ed, “prove[s] with out reasonable doubt that the total corruption of both political parties of the United States of America is the root cause of this colossal disaster,” as you claim. I’m not hostile to the conclusion, but U.S. political corruption is outside the scope of both articles to which you link. Care to elaborate?
@ Melissa.
1- Why US/NATO let that “Evil Airlift” ? ? ?
2- I raised this question on several US mags before that how a Pakistani Journalist can trace and meet OBL twice (once after Sep) and US can’t…. and now that his tapes are recorded why US is silent still?
I forget that in the real world every journalist follows an agenda… for food or for fame…God knows
@ratee.
Close your Pakistan Study book and open your eyes dude… its real world.
what’s the difference in Pak /Af….. nothing… both sides are fed by UN and run by US. Both have puppet Governments.
PPP is from Sindh… why were all its leaders killed? and where were they killed?
Bugti is killed….who killed him? Mush…was Sindhi..No… he is a Mohajir and his Marshal Law was accepted/supported by Punjabies and Mulla Military Alliance…
b.t.w
What happened to Swat/Malakand Refugees??? Did Punjab even let them enter their land? ? ?
Excellent article…I have family at both ends and I know the situation well..you have nailed the very key points…Pakis will tell you that the English wanted to create a MUSLIM STATE via Pakistan by dividing Kashmiris, Bangalis, Afghans/PAkhtuns, Sindhis, Muhajirs, Balochs and even Punjabis in half. Just as Israel was created to give problems to the Arab world, Pakistan was created to give south Asia problems..This is the British way..East india company is now PAki army and Co.
Also, you can find other facts on comment and video section of this youtube channel about Pakistan.
http://www.youtube.com/user/Bbubbo
It is well informed article. The writer has very nicely explored the reasons behind the Afghan Problem. Punjab has always tried to destablise Afghanistan as the whole Punjab is being irrigated by Afghan Water. Pukhtoons on both sides of the imposed colonial Durandline have the same language, culture, traditions and family relations.
Punjab is wilfully killing the Pukhtoon elders and are destroying Pukhtoon schools. Pukhtoons are talented people, they have ruled the world of Squash for continous 23 years. They are ruling the Indian film Industry, but Punjabies are not allowing them to live with peace.
Pashto Language is deprived of its due status instead the Punjabi generals are imposing Arabic and Urdu on Pukhtoons.
Afghanistan is the motherland of Pukhtoons and the day is near when Pukhtoons will be united and will have a democratic, secular and developed Afghanistan under the able leadership of Hamid Karzai, Asfand Yar Wali and Mehmood Khan Achakzai.